Partner risk indices

Country Risk Index

57

Political Risk Index

60.2

Short-Term Economic Risk Index

47.5

Long-Term Economic Risk Index

49.3

Operational Risk Index

62.3

Source: Partner Research Partner, as of 8 Nov 2026. 0-100, higher means higher risk.

Key indicators

Market overview

• Nigeria is in West Africa and is classified by the World Bank as Lower middle income. (World Bank)
• Population: 237.5 million (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• GDP: US$290.5bn in 2025 (estimate). (IMF WEO)

Economic conditions

• Real GDP growth: 4% in 2025 (estimate); the IMF projects 4.2% for 2026. (IMF WEO)
• Average consumer price inflation: 23% in 2025 (estimate); projected 15.6% for 2026. (IMF WEO)
• General government gross debt: 36.1% of GDP in 2025 (estimate). (IMF WEO)
• Current account balance: 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (estimate). (IMF WEO)
• Government net lending/borrowing: -1.8% of GDP in 2025 (estimate). (IMF WEO)
• Official exchange rate averaged 1,518.38 local currency units per US dollar in 2025, against 645.19 in 2023: 135.3% more units per dollar (the currency weakened against the dollar). (World Bank WDI)

Key risks

• Partner risk indices (0-100, higher = higher risk), as of 8 Nov 2026: Country Risk Index 57 (rank 25 of 53 in Africa, 1 = lowest risk); Political Risk Index 60.2 (rank 47 of 53 in Africa, 1 = lowest risk); Short-Term Economic Risk Index 47.5 (rank 10 of 53 in Africa, 1 = lowest risk); Long-Term Economic Risk Index 49.3 (rank 11 of 53 in Africa, 1 = lowest risk); Operational Risk Index 62.3 (rank 21 of 53 in Africa, 1 = lowest risk). (Partner Research Partner)
• Highest-scoring Partner risk component: society risk (73.4, political). (Partner Research Partner)
• World Bank governance scores (2025, 0-100, higher is better): control of corruption 27; government effectiveness 34; political stability and absence of violence 35; rule of law 43; regulatory quality 44. (World Bank WGI)
• External debt stocks: 51.5% of GNI (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Unemployment (modelled ILO estimate): 3.1% of labour force (2025). (World Bank WDI)

Investment considerations

• Foreign direct investment, net inflows: 1.4% of GDP (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Domestic credit to the private sector: 13.2% of GDP (2023). (World Bank WDI)
• Bank lending interest rate: 18.5% (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• The Meridian holds 2,966 published records tagged to Nigeria. (The Meridian)

Sector snapshot

• Energy and power: access to electricity 62.5% of population (2024); renewable share of final energy consumption 80.3% (2021). (World Bank WDI)
• Mining and minerals: mineral rents 0% of GDP (2021); ores and metals exports 0.9% of merchandise exports (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Financial services: foreign direct investment, net inflows 1.4% of GDP (2025); bank lending interest rate 18.5% (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Technology, media and telecoms: internet users 41.2% of population (2024); mobile subscriptions 70.8 per 100 people (2024). (World Bank WDI)
• Agriculture: agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added 23% of GDP (2025); employment in agriculture 33.5% of employment (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Manufacturing and industry: manufacturing, value added 8.3% of GDP (2025); industry (including construction), value added 16.4% of GDP (2025). (World Bank WDI)
• Infrastructure and real estate: urban population 63.8% of population (2025); access to electricity 62.5% of population (2024). (World Bank WDI)

Recent developments

• Forgive me , I was limited to airport last time - Tinubu begs Plateau people - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian Newspaper (nigerianeye.com, 14 Nov 2026) (GDELT)
• Police arrest Zainab Kwankwaso orderly , others over her disappearance from govt house - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian Newspaper (nigerianeye.com, 14 Nov 2026) (GDELT)
• Alausa wins 2026 minister of the year award , dedicates honour to Nigerian teachers , learners (nationalaccordnewspaper.com, 14 Nov 2026) (GDELT)
• Court Orders Nigerian Extradition To US Over Wire Fraud – :::… The Tide News Online :::… (thetidenewsonline.com, 13 Nov 2026) (GDELT)

Data limitations and sources

• Older data, shown with its period and not described as current: Domestic credit to the private sector (Latest published value is for 2023); Renewable share of final energy consumption (Latest published value is for 2021); Oil rents (Latest published value is for 2021); Mineral rents (Latest published value is for 2021).
• IMF figures for the most recent year are IMF estimates and later years are projections. World Bank series typically lag by one to two years. Headlines come from automated news monitoring and are not verified by The Meridian.
• Sources last checked 15 Nov 2026.

Meridian transactions

• IFC up to US$100m package for Bank of Industry: US$50m anchor in ₦274.19bn Series 1 bond + US$50m senior loan
• ACA Capital Alliance Private Equity Fund V fundraise; proposed IFC anchor (US$30m equity + US$20m co-invest)
• Nestlé Nigeria transfer of waters and premium beverages business into Peranel (Nestlé S.A./Platinum Equity JV)
• AFD US$30m facility to Bank of Industry for creative industries (+€500k TA)
• Nigeria National Digital Alphanumeric Postcode System (NIPOST / Milsat)
• TLG Capital closes credit facility for solar-appliance company Koolboks, Nigeria

Meridian articles

• Courts, not registries, are setting Africa’s IP agenda: Meridian IP Intelligence, October 2026
• The Meridian Watchlist: the October dates that will move Africa’s deal record
• Dangote breaks ground at Lamu while a Kenyan court keeps the refinery site frozen until 14 October
• Airtel Money prices its London float at £1.96 a share, valuing the business at £5.3bn
• Paul Hastings adds Nigerian arbitration lawyer Opeyemi Longe as it builds an Africa-facing disputes team
• British Nigeria Law Forum elects Genevieve Nwodo Wakeley-Jones as chair in its 25th year